Fewer Swedes are buying cigarettes. But more and more people are buying nicotine pouches and vejps. This is what CAN states in its latest report on nicotine sales in Sweden.
"Cigarettes will disappear. Politicians and governments can either speed up the process or try to delay it. But in the end, it doesn't really matter. New nicotine products are taking over now, whatever they do." says Karl-Åke Johansson, spokesperson for the Swedish Cigarette Association.
Smoking in Sweden continues to decline and, in line with this, cigarette sales are also falling. At the same time, both sales and use of alternatives to cigarettes are increasing in the nicotine market. This is shown by two recent reports published by Central Association for Alcohol and Drug Education, CAN.
"If daily smoking continues to decline at the same rate as it has in recent years, the target of less than 5% smoking daily by 2025 is achievable." notes CAN
Snus and e-cigs take over
In 2022, around 7% of the Swedish population smoked cigarettes daily and 6% were occasional smokers. Snus use has increased dramatically, with the proportion of vejp users rising from 2% to 4%.
"This confirms something that we users have been saying for a long time. Cigarettes really are on the way out. Older Swedes seem to prefer snus and younger people are turning to new smoke-free products such as e-cigarettes and nicotine pouches." says Karl-Åke Johansson, spokesperson for The Swedish Vejpare Association, part of the New Nicotine Alliance Sweden.
Fewer cigarettes in circulation
In addition to the decrease in the proportion of smokers, the number of cigarettes daily smokers report smoking has also decreased. A daily smoker today smokes on average about 15 fewer cigarettes per week compared to a daily smoker 20 years ago.
Mats Ramstedt, research officer at CAN, has compared sales figures with the annually reported use of nicotine products in Sweden.
"Tobacco cigarette use has fallen sharply over the last 20 years, by 40%. At the same time, the use of tobacco snuff has increased significantly, by 65%. Then there is the issue of new nicotine products, which we have measured for the first time based on sales data, where we can now confirm that there are large increases in sales between the years 2021 and 2022", says Mats Ramstedt to TV4 News.
E-cigarettes sell significantly better
The use of e-cigarettes has increased significantly, especially among young people and young women. According to the report, the amount of e-liquid sold in Sweden has increased from 4,000 liters to 14,000 liters over the past two years. This coincides with the introduction of disposable models in convenience stores. But Mats Ramstedt says it is not yet possible to link this development to the continued decline in tobacco smoking.
Noticeable in small shops
Nevertheless, these trends were captured already in the spring, in the trade association Convenience Store Swedens latest report on customers' shopping habits and attitudes in members' stores.
"E-cigarettes and nicotine pouches have established themselves on the shelves. At the same time, a large proportion of those who usually buy nicotine products say they would consider trying smokeless products instead of smoking. This is a clear sign of a change in attitudes that is affecting sales" notes Convenience Stores Sweden in Vejpkollen.
Fronts with e-cigs, not cigarettes
According to Karl-Åke Johansson you only need to look in any convenience store or gas station to connect the statistics with market developments.
"The disposable models have established the e-cig in a way that the traditional vejp products never could. The shops are fronting with them. They are everywhere, I can go around the Borås area where I live and buy an e-cig in any store. Just like you could always do with cigarettes."
Smoke-free nikoitn attracts
According to Karl-Åke Johansson it is only a matter of time before cigarettes become a commodity that shops no longer profit from selling. In contrast, nicotine pouches, snus and e-cigarettes will attract customers to shops in the same way that cigarettes once did.
"Say what you will about disposable models, but together with snus they will take over more and more. Whether we like it or not. Customers are talking to their wallets. And with that, smoking, or rather cigarette sales, are likely to be marginalized within 10-15 years. Politicians and regulators can either delay the inevitable or speed up the process. The best thing, of course, would be to ensure that as many smokers as possible understand the benefits of switching from cigarettes to e-cigs or snus." Karl-Åke Johansson.
Positive developments - for public health
Karl-Åke Johansson believes that this development can only be seen as positive. At least from a harm reduction perspective. Different forms of nicotine use carry different risks and there is currently a consensus among researchers that the use of smokeless nicotine carries little to no risk of developing several smoking-related cardiovascular diseases, lung diseases such as COPD and pulmonary emphysema, and several types of cancer. Some increased risk of type 2 diabetes is suspected to be associated with snus use, as well as temporary stiffness of blood vessels when using nicotine via e-cigarettes. But even here, risk levels are significantly higher for smokers.
"No nicotine use is completely risk-free. The problem is that many interest groups read the figures like the Bible. What we actually see is that those who want to use nicotine are now simply opting out of the most harmful way of doing so. And that is actually a really good development. Sweden stands out in that we actually use as much nicotine as other countries, mainly via snus and nicotine pouches. But we don't die from smoking-related diseases to the same extent as in countries where smoking is still very high." says Karl-Åke Johansson.
More young people vejpar - fewer smoke regularly
Disposable vapes started to be sold in regular stores, that is, outside the more niche vejpshoppers, as late as 2020. Meanwhile, e-cigarette use among minors increased sharply in 2021-2022. This year, it has decreased again, although sporadic use is still higher than before 2020. The more regular use of e-cigarettes among young people is marginally higher than the use of cigarettes. Four percent of 9th graders and three percent of high school students used e-cigs regularly, while around two percent smoked regularly. Before 2020, the share of
"Today, we have clear age limits that we must ensure that shops comply with. If young people get hold of e-cigarettes or snus anyway, it's either because the shops don't check the age of the buyers, they're dealing to each other or the black market is involved. Right now, authorities need to understand how this market works. E-cigarettes are NOT like regular cigarettes. New models appear, trend quickly, disappear and are replaced by something else. The legitimate shops that comply with laws and regulations can't keep up and can't compete with black market players, not with the current system." says Karl-Åke Johansson.
Need to tackle the illegal
He argues that authorities controlling e-cigarette sales need to get better at detect the illegal sales. And it's not just about age checks, but also what products are actually on the shelves.
"All sales to minors are prohibited. But the seizures made by the police from young people show that these are unregistered products, often with a much higher nicotine content and capacity than those that ordinary shops are allowed to sell. These products are attractive to adults as well and this is the part that the gangs earn the most from. Policymakers should look into this more and find solutions so that the controlled market, where age limits and controls actually apply, at least has a chance to reach the adults who otherwise feed the black market. When the legal products become more attractive than the illegal ones, the incentives for organized criminals to get involved are reduced. When that interest disappears, so does the supply aimed at young people," says Karl-Åke Johansson.
